Overfilled Oil and Leak. How ****Ed am I?

Got a oil change 2 weeks ago at a local shop. I was an Idiot and didn't check levels after the job. (See attached photos). It's about an inch over the full line.

Last night, I noticed some oil spots in the parking lot and decided to double check oil. To find it was overfilled. Checked spots today and it is indeed oil. (See second photo for location).

I am jacking up the car tomorrow to confirm where but it looks to be the filter location? Dark spots on the sides are where my front wheels are. Seems to be between them and off to the left a little.

How ****ed am I? Loose filter or plug from the higher pressure? I am under warranty and plan to get an inspection after I siphon out the access.

I have read some dip sticks are inaccurate, but I don't trust that with the leak. My oil in the past has been on Full. Never over. Shop likely topped me off a quart-ish extra?

I'm missed at myself for not checking sooner.