Political Consultant here, electoral history of TN

1962 Elections

Winning Party : INC+

Seats won:139

Vote %:46%

Runner up: DMK+

Seats won:61

Vote %:44.8%

1967

DMK+ 179 52.6%

INC+ 51 41.1%

1971

DMK+ 205 54.3%

INC+ 21 38.2%

1977

ADMK+ 144 33.5%

DMK+ 48 24.9%

INC+ 32 20.4%

JP+ 10 16.3%

This was a great 4 way fight

1980

ADMK+ 162 48.9%

DMK+ 69 44.4%

1984

ADMK+ 195 53.9%

DMK+ 34 37%

1989

DMK+ 169 37.9%

ADMK(J) 30 22.4%

INC(I) 26 19.83%

ADMK (Ja) 2 9.1%

Notice how DMK alliance's vote share increased by only 0.9% but the seats won changed drastically. Also notice how INC still had a massive 20% vote share in 1989.

1991

ADMK+ 225 59.8%

DMK+ 7 30%

Rajiv Gandhi death

1996

DMK+ 221 53.8%

ADMK+ 4 27.1%

Jayalalitha corruption. See the massive swing from previous election

2001

ADMK+ 196 50.1%

DMK+ 37 38.7%

2006

DMK+ 163 44.8%

ADMK+ 69 39.9%

DMDK Captain secured 8.4% and won a seat

2011

ADMK+ 203 51.9%

DMK+ 31 39.5%

DMK Corruption

2016

ADMK+ 40.9%

DMK+ 39.9%

This is very interesting. 2011 everyone knows how bad angi incumbency against DMK was, however in 2016 their vote share has increased only by 0.4%. Reason is Jayalalitha strategy of Fielding Makkal Nala kootani which secured 6.1% and PMK also secured 5.3% independently. That is why despite ADMK's vote share dipping by 11% they retained power. Both VCK and PMK were not aligned with either DMK or ADMK.

2021

DMK+ 159 45.4%

ADMK+ 75 39.7%

NTK got 6.58% AMMK got 2.5% and Makkal Needhi Mayyam got 2.6%

If DMK can retain this alliance and unless there is a major anti incumbency their vote share will max dip to 40%. Can ADMK rally everyone together to win? That is the major question for this election