GamestopSwapDD: part 420.1 -CFD summations
Hello world.
Time for me to post again.
hope you are well.
all of you. (yes shills, you too. I ain't mad, we all have jobs to do.)
sit down please, and set positions to normal listening volume. it's time for class.
may the seven pillars guide you safely home.
It wasn't not too long ago, that someone asked me to look something up, and sadly, again, it led me farther into level 2 and level 3 swaps, and a history which was never shown to us correctly, by anyone, until now.
This writeup will focus on some important things.
burry, 2007, credit default swaps, mortgages, loan issuers for mortgages, archegos, citadel, .com bubble, and ofc, total return swaps on gamestop which carry all the crap listed above.
In the last sections of this series, I had dug quite extensively into a type of level 3 swap being used on Gamestop, known as contract for difference, which are supposed to be illegal per dodd frank. After those writeups, social media's seemed to have erase me from the earth. I stopped digging for quite a while though, so this will be a continuation of that.
first thing is first. what WERE those cfds?
well. they're weird. thats wtf they are.
(using grok to help explain things , and have verified the following info:)
the liquidity fed funds were the fund types that i found the lehman wamu bofa citi pre-08 instruments in.. at the end of endgameDD..
well, leg 1 of GME CFD is >
floatingRtIndex: USFFE (USD Federal Funds Effective Rate)
-spread of 0.025%
2027 expiry.
... its a spread bet, on an inverted federal fund interest rate, which is about to rug, and its set to a 0 spread on GME. weird right?
note from ultimator5 :"I “think” UWIN is some terminology to describe an index that it is bet against. If I were to make a bet on which one… perhaps the Russell 2000 UWM?"
we never confirmed that though.
I chose to use grok as the formatting of their ouput, and i've personally verified the following information as correct, as can anyone. (no i didn't research with grok, simply asked it for summaries from known questions)
so., to TLDR these dumbass things. they hedged vs gme with an inversionary tool of extreme importance.
you see the liquidity fed fund they chose is the effective rate.
we can pull up the federal reserves historical chart to see that particular trend over time. as you can see, its already inverting. > https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
paired with the other swap signals, when this thing crashes, these cfd's should become VERY VERY VERY profitable
well, ASBT, wtf IS the federal funds rates?
its something that moves tandem with mortgages and real estate, out of a serious wide variety of things. it's a key metric for lending and borrowing.
i said its about to rug, but how would i know? perhaps ill show you the other swap signals i found, to know for sure.
click this bank of international settlements link > Bank of International Settlements, OTC Derivative Data
this is BIS level,... this will highlight ONLY reports from the 75 US counterparties.
take the cell box of data and scroll all the way right, and keep an eye on comparison of credit total credit derivatives outstanding vs equity swaps outstanding at the bottom.
then scroll left to see how credit is being rolled into these swaps in a directly corelating way.
as CDS decrease, equity swaps increase (total return swaps are these type of swap), and then, we can see trend changed in 2020, assumably in march wen it crashed.
but since then, both outstanding forwards/swaps and credit swaps have increased ..
CDS by about 80%!!
i decided to check after seeing gross sold increased by about 25%.. and sure enough..
the pattern is consistent in FX swaps gross/outstanding as well. these would most definitely get paired with interest rate swaps..
listed notional of total US forwards and swaps since 08 now for a visual of what i showed in #1. There is a trend that was prevalent pre 08 that is showing in the swap numbers now.
pair these all together, and it is something serious to ponder upon. I'm proving, and will prove 100% in this series, that there is a bubble. for those that like charts, heres 2 more.
forwards and equity swaps, showing historical:outstanding - notional amounts
historical:outstanding - gross market values
i'm sure i could have not placed those metrics, but figured many wouldn't want to click a shortlink.
the reason i've paired these metrics, is they allow one to dig underneath the hood to derive what drives the fed fund rate. ofc, mortgage lending would be one side attribute of this.. but its the swaps. swaps show underwriter alleviation in an under the market way. they are how to peer INTO the system and view metrics they dont exactly want seen or understood.
To get a view farther into this under the hoodness, i actually devised a plan. i decided to learn to (try to i mean) code a program which would allow me to harvest the data archives, and really dig in farther than i previously had. I called it GameCock.
it targets the public data dissemination dashboard and harvests directly from the SEC's data archives, found here: https://www.sec.gov/data-research/sec-markets-data . NPORT export to csv works, and edgar scrapes an entire underwriters filings from the SEC going back to 1993, rather than the 2001 limit they impose upon us. it was wildly outside of my ability to take this on, but it worked, and i succeeded.
Now, anon, i'm offering you this tool to use to harvest whatever you like, and dig in the data. get ur feet wet, perhaps you'll learn to swim.
its the only credit swap scraper that i know of. targets equity swaps as well. I'm sure there were better ways to do this, but i did my best, and it does work. it will turn any one into the archivist that Aaron Swartz taught us to be. True Anonymous style.
in this way all records i choose to show in the following posts, can be recreated from source, using the scientific and socratic methods of approach. that script can be found here >
github. com/artpersonnft/SECthingv2/tree/main
remove the space after dot. i wrote it in python, and it self installs pre required modules for noob friendly operation. equity, credit, both export to CSV for easy analysis of results. if one puts in the CIK of a company at the main menu, this will also AGGRESSIVELY crawl the sec's storage for the CIK and download every .txt file it finds in every folder of a company. allyourbase is a stupid option that fills up ur harddrive, downloading every file from edgar from 1993 to now, or allows one to download a full years worth of filings, or at minimun, a quarter of a years filings.
again, highly advised not to do that. it will fill up w/e size drive you have.
anyway, back to the thing.
what got me about these damn cfds that i didn't know to look into before...
it was the patterns...:
all were filed with XXXX instead of BILT
payments for the CFDs are :
USD > gme.n
EUR > gme.n,
AUD > gme.ax,
and a strange currency labeled UWIN, which is leg 1, where either USD or EUR was currency leg 2.
it was then that i realized it wasn't just gme.N being used, but gme.ax! theres more than one type of RIC!
all the swap archives we've ever been shown, they all used isins and cusips, but no one among us did searches for gamestop's RIC listings. it turns out, theres quite a few.
GME:ASE, GME:NYS, GME:NYQ, GS2C:BER,GME:MIL (Milan Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.IM
- GME:VIE (Vienna Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.VI
- 0A6L:LSE (London Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.L
- GS2C:BRN (Bern Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.BN
- GME:MEX (Mexican Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.MX
- GS2C:HAM (Hamburg Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.HA
- GMEX,A:GER (Xetra, Germany):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.DE
- GS2C:FRA (Frankfurt Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.F
- GS2C:DUS (Düsseldorf Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.DU
- GMEa:DEU (German Composite Index):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.DE
- GS2C:STU (Stuttgart Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.ST
- GS2C:MUN (Munich Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.MU
- GS2C:BER (Berlin Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.BE
- GME:ASE, GME:NYS, GME:NYQ (New York Stock Exchange):
- ISIN: US36467W1099
- RIC: GME.NY
Thats a hell of a lot of omitted listings, isn't it? I learned to look up all the RIC (refinitiv identifying codes) after learning that the CFD's contained more than just .N .
German $gme RIC's in US swap records.
the first ones i saw? pic above^
German $gme RIC's
right side, 4th from end, GMEa.DE = german RIC code.
all dates are executed feb 8 2023.
expiry 10 years out for CFD's
total return swap expired nov 18, 2024.
#1 total return swap > 230 EUR for 10 SHAS(shares) @ 19.16658064 strike
#2 new trade 830 EUR for 45 SHAS(CFD)@ 19.302344
#3 correction830 euros for 45 SHAS(CFD)@ 19.302344 strike
order of things : open CFD. correct within one second.
55 minutes later, play the total return swap for less than the cfd price.
cfd's were cash secured, where as the total retrn swap was not. thats what 'cash' on the end means.
and thats just one type of instrument, -CFD.
by searching the equity swaps for these other identifiers, it opened the door to the rabbit hole which connects all the rabbit holes..
the swap baskets.
Qhen dictating to grok to explain the terms of one of the swaps to me, i think it summarizes it well above my ability to simpify these. this way, others can download the archives, copy the header and line to be studied into notepad, then copy paste that to AI for explanation of all terms, according to the cftc technical specs for swap dissemination requirements.
aka, use the tools the hack the system, then change this stupidass game we're stuck in.
12,999,986.27 price! >>> -$13000000 notional amount on both quantities.
kek.
the swaps shown above are total return basket swaps.
so we can simply throw the "theory" word right out the window.
theres your undeniable evidence.
i'm out of picture length. going to continue to 420.2
i know not how many posts it will take to dump all of my findings, but.. i will do my best to be complete in this series, and to address as many things as possible before being silenced for the 69th time.
to the morons doing this:
ITS MY MONEY AND I NEED IT NOW!
CANT STOP WONT STOP
-AlwaysSadButTruthful
edit: PS: when FFE goes to .1 like it did in 08, and will do and is starting to do already, then the premium cost for these CFD's goes to 0.025% of its current rate because of the -spread. then as GME price goes up, since 0% rate on the corp CL A, these essentially become inverted short positions and will be directly relevant to the GME price increase.