Canadian government report predicts a bleak future with no social mobility and economic stagnation
The Canadian Government runs an independent "think tank" called Policy Horizons Canada that's mandated to provide a realistic assessment of what the economic/social/political landscape will look like in the future. Their goal is to help the rest of the federal bureaucracy make better policies and programs by providing them with the foresight of what is most likely to lie ahead.
Their most recent report came out last week: Future Lives: Social mobility in question. In it, they recommend that policymakers anticipate that by 2040, wealth and income inequality will limit upward social mobility to such a degree that could change many of the fundamental beliefs people have about their role in society.
https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2025/01/10/future-lives-social-mobility/index.shtml
highlights
Capital for investment in new enterprises may concentrate in the hands of a small number of very wealthy, older people. Their perspectives and preferences may determine which sectors become winners and losers in terms of innovation and job growth
In 2040, owning a home is not a realistic goal for many. Most new homeowners get help from family members. Some take out intergenerational mortgages and have several generations of family living together. Others enter alternative household mortgages with friends. A growing percentage of homeowners also own rental properties. They oppose policies to expand the housing supply or freeze rents. Inequality between those who rent and those who own has become a key driver of social, economic, and political conflict.
In 2040, people see inheritance as the only reliable way to get ahead. Society increasingly resembles an aristocracy. Wealth and status pass down the generations. Family background – especially owning property – divides the ‘haves’ from the ‘have-nots’.
Property ownership – and by extension wealth – may become even more concentrated if younger generations abandon the idea of buying single-family dwellings in favour of renting or forming alternative households. That could leave those with existing capital or equity in a position to snap up more and more residential property, which could also produce higher rental costs in future
In 2040, pursuing post-secondary education (PSE) is no longer considered a reliable path to social mobility. Tuition and housing costs exclude all but the wealthy. Relatively long program timelines mean significant opportunity costs. Inflexible programs cannot keep up with constantly evolving skills demands in the job market. Fewer young people choose post secondary; those who do, see it less as a path to a successful career than a way to reinforce their membership in the ‘elite’.
People may lose faith in the Canadian project. They may reject policies that promote education, jobs, or home ownership. The usual levers may seem misguided and wasteful to those who have abandoned the idea of ‘moving up’. They could lose the drive to better themselves and their communities. Others might embrace radical ideas about restructuring the state, society, and the economy.