Natural Gas Short

Good morning all.

Last week, I was a big Natural Gas bull (tracking NG1! via $UNG, front months). This weekend brought a pretty substantial winter storm and a lingering few days of super cold temperatures.

Nat Gas traded higher going into the weekend and I closed ALL of my long positions save for a few "lotto ticket" calls. Yesterday, the futures market opened for a few hours and NatGas was in decline. I fully expect this to continue and maybe even break the December lows (<$4.50)

When the market opens on Tuesday, I'll be shopping February PUTS. In the $5.5 range. A lotto play would be around $4.5, though I expect a range to settle in before that.

This is an El Nino year, so trade wisely if you're trading gas.

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Edit: 16-January-2024

As suggested, $UNG tanked today -13% as of writing. My "lotto calls" are dead, and I'm going to short any bounces. The contracts flip today to February.

Be advised, $UNG is planning a 1:4 reverse split (you're giving up four shares for one post-split share).