Jackets for ultra event

I'm doing the Seven Serpents Quick Bite (500km / 10,000m) this May and am trying to figure out what jacket to bring. It needs to work for cycling at night. Cyrrently my setup is:

  • Gore Spinshift cycling rain jacket (147g)
  • Patagonia Nano Air Light Vest (211g)
  • Assos Arm warmers (50g)
  • Assos Mille GT C2 wind jacket (90g)
  • Jersey

I'm not sure if this will be warm enough, and am wondering if I should bring/buy a puffy jacket (eg. Mountain Hardware Ghost Whisperer) instead of the Patagonia vest. Or if I should bring a merino long sleeve, say instead of the wind jacket and arm warmers. One issue is that the Gore rain jacket gets quite tight around my armpits if I wear anything anything even a bit bulky, like my existing Patagonia puffy jacket (just a pretty standard one).

Any suggestions? What do you wear?