I'm asking Spoonamore about discrepancies in his math
I've been posting here since early days trying to focus on getting widespread access to accurate raw data, making sensible statistical arguments, and generally trying to keep the sub reality focused.
The reality as I see it is that voting machine security is very weak, Trump tried to fix the last two elections and probably attempted to fix this one (although I'm not sure how or if he was successful), and that the stakes of this election are so high that we should all support wide hand recounts of paper ballots in swing states.
However I can't reproduce some of Spoonamore's numbers with the current publicly available data sets. User alex-baker-1997, who I believe works for Tom Bonier's firm, has been doing what appears to me excellent work tamping down on misunderstandings of statistics in this sub.
As I said in my question to Spoonamore, I think this needs to be cleared up if his argument is to be taken seriously. It's possible other researchers are missing things. For example, the aggregate statistics Bonier is looking at may hide things that are visible if you're looking at a timestamped stream as they're adding individual ballots. But I don't have access to the data and I would like to do better than merely speculating.
And while I generally have a higher than average opinion about Democratic strategists and opinion pollsters like Bonier's firm, I also think it's true that pollsters and strategists don't always see things that a forensic approach would see. The fields have different methods and are trying to measure different things.
So if you agree these questions need clearing up and than Spoonamore has earned the right to clear them up publicly, please take a look at my question and consider upvoting