People are missing the point

By "people," I’m referring to those who argue things like:

  • "O3’s compute costs are too high."
  • "Models still can't solve basic questions (e.g., the infamous Rs test)."
  • "ARC-AGI isn’t a true measure of AGI."
  • "We’ve exhausted all data and will hit a wall soon.".....

You’re missing the bigger picture here. The BIGGEST takeaway from O3’s release is that AI progress isn’t slowing, it’s accelerating. O3 was launched just three months after O1! And cost per unit of intelligence is reducing with each iteration. These people often focus on one or two limitations and then predict years of stagnation, only to be disproven soon after. Remember when people said AI couldn’t draw hands, generate text in images, or simulate eating behaviour? Basically, whatever limitations exist now will inevitably be overcome.

And about the "data wall" argument, did you notice the launch of the Genesis physical engine? It enables the creation of infinite real-world physical data to train AI and robots. Now imagine a few more tools like this that can generate data across different modalities. Moreover, consider how humans develop thinking abilities. Do we need infinite data? No. We work with limited knowledge and use mental manipulation to generate new insights. Why assume AIs can't do the same if they aren't doing it already?

In short, don’t be a Gary Marcus. Think critically before making such nonsensical arguments.