Hypothetical near future Lunar warfare: what would it look like?

I'm not sure if it's the appropriate place to ask this but I'm brainstorming ideas to make a realistic hard sci-fi hypothetical Lunar conflict in the near future as I feel this setting is barely explored in media (movies, tv shows, games...). I don't aim for absolute 1:1 realism but something that goes along the lines of very plausible with our current understanding of physics and technology. I take a lot of inspiration of The Expanse/Children of a dead Earth (especially for ship designs), COD: Infinite Warfare and Tiberium Sun. The game will have gameplay inspiration from the game Boundary, Red Orchestra 2 (especially the dynamic campaign/map control) and some limited form of base building.

Tell me your vision of a plausible conflict (main actors, what started it...) and what would the conflict would look like. The way I see it, it will be like the current Ukrainian conflict but on the Moon:

  • Early 23rd century
  • The Moon has become an important space port for ship building and mining (especially helium 3 to power fusion reactors)
  • Earth has been stagnating for almost a century because of overpopulation/over consumption, climate change, ressource scarcity and unstable political climate in most regions of the globe
  • The colony of Mars (around 20 million people) is now thriving because of it's ease to access asteroid mining, lower gravity and looser laws on AI and robotics
  • There are many other interesting places like Venus cloud cities (used as research stations), various space ports, ice thrawlers etc
  • The asteroid belt and beyond is the new "wild west" with explorers and mining companies fighting for the various ressource rich asteroids, sometimes resulting in deaths
  • In light of the violent incidents, Mars (followed later by Earth) starts building a patrol navy to protect its shipping lanes and police the outer system
  • Mars has been trying to become more and more independent from Earth and as such, has various exclusive mining rights on the Moon
  • Mars also finances lots of pro-Martian/extremist governments on Earth (think Russia) in order to sow discord and fragment the unity of Earth
  • Various skirmishes in the outer solar system between Martian and Earth mining companies + countries of Earth ban of various AI/tech/robots and Martian ressources contributes to tension escalating between the 2 planets
  • Tensions reach their highest when Mars prospectors on the Moon find a giant deposit (lithium, anything plausible with value and + helium 3) that hasn't been claimed by anyone but the problem is that it's much closer to Earth private mining territory than Mars
  • Diplomatic feud ensues but on the Moon, things get ugly as Earth private companies rush to claim the deposit, fighting starts with Martians resulting in deaths
  • Mars secretly sends shipments of weapons and security but now it results in skirmishes being bloodier
  • There are some kinetic turrets on the surface of the Moon used for blowing up small asteroids or space debris and one of the Earth mining company uses it to blow up a Martian cargo ship that they suspected it was smuggling weapons
  • Conflict starts

The way I see it, the early months of the war it will be a ad hoc hodgepodge mining equipment and on some instances guns used the surface and underground mining complex. No one will have true space supremacy as neither sides have a navy capable or the numbers to do it (remember, both sides have a patrol navy with limited utility for a full blown conflict) so they use it to protect their supply lines and sometimes take pot shots. Earth has the obvious advantage of being much closer to the Moon and Mars is only close once every 2 years but it can be offset by various countries on Earth supplying Martians "mercenaries" and "volunteers". The various kinetic, missile and laser turrets on the moon make it a hostile environment to any ships so unless ground troops disable them, no "air support". Any vehicle and infantry must have RCS to better control their movementd and positions in lower gravity.

What do you guys think?