If The Holdovers was released this year, how do you think its Best Picture chances are?

It didn’t really feel like the Holdovers was that close to winning last year but I wonder if this lineup if it would do better. People have already been discussing how The Brustalist, EP, and Anora aren’t universally loved so they’ve floated the idea of Conclave winning. But I wonder if in the same lineup if the Holdovers would fair better than Conclave. What are your thoughts?