What’s the floor number of awards each viable film needs to win Best Picture?

The minimum amount of awards for it to be considered a semi-lock.

IMO:

The Brutalist: BAFTA, DGA (if it wins at BAFTA and DGA, it’s a done deal)

Emilia Perez: BAFTA, SAG (a cast ensemble win at SAG pretty much locks it up, but I threw BAFTA to be secure)

Wicked: SAG, PGA, CC (it would need all of these to become a threat, a lock? debatable. but definitely a serious contender)

Anora: BAFTA or SAG (winning against TB and EP locks it up)