Analysis: With the benefit of hindsight, how should we have drafted?
Who SHOULD you have drafted, and how badly did you screw up by drafting the guys you did??? I put together a quick VORP-based, adjusted-points-per-game, autodraft-style (fill all positions before bench) analysis for 12-person PPR leagues (1 QB, 2 WR, 2RB, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DST).
1 - With hindsight, here's what the first round should have looked like: https://imgur.com/VxKT0UY
Interesting to see two QBs in the top 12 - Lamar and Josh Allen have been amazing. Kamara has really flown under the radar...
2 - The pre-season top 12 by ECR and how they actually performed: https://imgur.com/maCUHOy . Lots of duds in the mix, but five first-rounders deserved to be first-rounders.
3 - Biggest underperformers: https://imgur.com/1dRShz8 . CMC is obvious, but I was surprised to see just how much of a disaster Tyreek was.
4 - Biggest overperformers: https://imgur.com/xX057tY . Several surprise TE successes this year...
Brief technical notes:
- I capped the difference using an ADP of 109 (the player after the last starter for a 12-team league) because otherwise the "biggest busts" are people with an ECR of 300 who ended up being player 500. Practically speaking, those players are irrelevant for the draft.
- These ECR ranking were from approximately two weeks before the first game.
- Some background on VORP: https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/06/what-is-value-based-drafting/ .
- The "adjusted points per game" assumes the player is replaced with a median bench player for the games in which he was injured.
- Last year's post: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/18huzza/analysis_adp_with_hindsight/