I asked ChatGPT to simulate the 2026 U.S. Senate Elections, assuming 2018 conditions
National environment was D+8
Key Matchups
Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) defeats Dan Sullivan (R), 51%-49% after redistribution from RCV
Georgia: Jon Ossoff (D) defeats Brian Kemp (R), 51.2%-48.8%
Iowa: Rob Sand (D) defeats Joni Ernst (R), 50.5%-49.5%
Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) defeats Clay Higgins (R), 51.5%-48.5% in a runoff
Maine: Chellie Pingree (D) defeats Susan Collins (R), 51%-49%
Montana: Jon Tester (D) defeats Steve Daines (R), 50.8%-49.2%
North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D) defeats Thom Tillis (R), 51.4%-48.6%
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) defeats Jon Husted (R), 52%-48%
It’s probably overestimating the effects that national midterm environments can have on Senate races, and I doubt that Democrats get a list of dream candidates like this in each state. I wouldn’t bet on Dems retaking the chamber, especially not like this. Still interesting to ponder, though. Could be a lot closer than we’re all anticipating.
National environment was D+8
Key Matchups
Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) defeats Dan Sullivan (R), 51%-49% after redistribution from RCV
Georgia: Jon Ossoff (D) defeats Brian Kemp (R), 51.2%-48.8%
Iowa: Rob Sand (D) defeats Joni Ernst (R), 50.5%-49.5%
Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) defeats Clay Higgins (R), 51.5%-48.5% in a runoff
Maine: Chellie Pingree (D) defeats Susan Collins (R), 51%-49%
Montana: Jon Tester (D) defeats Steve Daines (R), 50.8%-49.2%
North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D) defeats Thom Tillis (R), 51.4%-48.6%
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) defeats Jon Husted (R), 52%-48%
It’s probably overestimating the effects that national midterm environments can have on Senate races, and I doubt that Democrats get a list of dream candidates like this in each state. I wouldn’t bet on Dems retaking the chamber, especially not like this. Still interesting to ponder, though. Could be a lot closer than we’re all anticipating.