What would it have been like had LeBron been in the West instead of weak East. Not go to Finals 9x
This post here is actually by request. Somebody asked if I would do a video on what it would look like if LeBron James' teams had been in the Western Conference.
Now, this isn't as easy to determine as you might think. There are two ways to look at it:
- Simply move LeBron’s teams to the West and see what their record would have meant for seeding.
- Adjust their records based on how they performed against East and West teams to estimate what their record would have been with a West-heavy schedule.
I did both, so let’s get right into it.
LeBron’s Early Cleveland Years (2006–2010)
2006 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 50-32 (4th seed in the East)
If in the West: 50-32 (5th seed)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 48-34 (6th seed, would have played Denver in the 1st round)
2007 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 50-32 (2nd seed in the East)
If in the West: 50-32 (6th seed)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 51-31 (5th seed, would have played Utah in the 1st round)
2008 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 45-37 (4th seed in the East)
If in the West: 45-37 (10th place, would have missed the playoffs)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 45-37 (Still 10th place, no playoffs)
2009 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 66-16 (1st seed in the East)
If in the West: 66-16 (1st seed, 1 game ahead of the Lakers)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 70-12 (Still 1st seed, would have played Utah in the 1st round)
2010 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 61-21 (1st seed in the East)
If in the West: 61-21 (1st seed, same as Lakers)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 63-19 (Still 1st seed, would have played a 50-win OKC team in the 1st round)
LeBron’s Miami Heat Years (2011–2014)
2011 Miami Heat
Actual Record: 58-24 (2nd seed in the East)
If in the West: 58-24 (2nd seed, same seeding)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 57-25 (Still 2nd seed, but would have faced Chris Paul’s 46-win New Orleans in the 1st round instead of Philadelphia)
2012 Miami Heat
Actual Record: 46-20 (2nd seed in the East, lockout season)
If in the West: 46-20 (3rd seed instead of 2nd)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 44-22 (Still 3rd seed, would have played the Clippers in the 1st round)
2013 Miami Heat
Actual Record: 66-16 (1st seed in the East)
If in the West: 66-16 (1st seed, same seeding)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 68-14 (Still 1st seed, would have played Houston in the 1st round instead of Milwaukee)
2014 Miami Heat
Actual Record: 54-28 (2nd seed in the East)
If in the West: 54-28 (5th seed instead of 2nd)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 56-26 (Still only the 4th seed, would have had to play San Antonio in the 2nd round instead of the Finals)
LeBron’s Second Cleveland Stint (2015–2018)
2015 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 53-29 (2nd seed in the East)
If in the West: 53-29 (7th seed instead of 2nd)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 51-31 (Still 7th seed, would have played 56-win Houston in the 1st round)
2016 Cleveland Cavaliers (Championship Year)
Actual Record: 57-25 (1st seed in the East)
If in the West: 57-25 (3rd seed instead of 1st)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 59-23 (Still 3rd seed, would have played Dallas in the 1st round, then likely San Antonio and Golden State before the Finals)
2017 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 51-31 (2nd seed in the East)
If in the West: 51-31 (5th seed instead of 2nd)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 47-35 (6th seed, would have played a 51-win Utah team in the 1st round)
2018 Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual Record: 50-32 (4th seed in the East)
If in the West: 50-32 (3rd seed instead of 4th, weak year for the West)
Adjusted for a West-heavy schedule: 47-35 (8th seed, would have played the 65-win Rockets in the 1st round)
LeBron’s Lakers Years (2020–2024)
2020 Lakers (Bubble Championship Year)
Actual Record: 52-19 (1st seed in the West)
If in the East: 52-19 (Would have been 3rd seed instead of 1st)
Adjusted for an East-heavy schedule: 49-22 (Still 3rd seed, would have played Toronto in the 2nd round and likely Boston in the Conference Finals)
2021 Lakers
Actual Record: 42-30 (7th seed in the West)
If in the East: 42-30 (Would have been 4th seed instead of 7th)
Adjusted for an East-heavy schedule: 46-26 (Still 4th seed, might have won a round or two)
2023 Lakers
Actual Record: 43-39 (7th seed in the West)
If in the East: 43-39 (8th seed instead of 7th)
Adjusted for an East-heavy schedule: 43-39 (Still 8th seed, would have played Boston in the 1st round)
2024 Lakers
Actual Record: 47-35 (8th seed in the West)
If in the East: 47-35 (6th seed instead of 8th)
Adjusted for an East-heavy schedule: 51-31 (Would have been 2nd seed, could have had an easier playoff run)
If LeBron had played in the Western Conference his entire career, here’s my best estimate:
He likely wouldn’t have made 10 Finals—probably closer to six Finals.
He would have still won at least three rings, possibly four, but four is a stretch.
In the 2010s, the Western Conference was just too stacked with San Antonio, Golden State, OKC, Houston, the Clippers, and the Lakers.
The Eastern Conference was significantly weaker in most of his career, which is why his Finals streak (2011–2018) is often criticized.
Had he been in the West his whole career, I think LeBron would have had about six Finals appearances and three championships.
Let me know what you think in the comments!