Battle of the Eras week 13 connections and potential picks

It’s week 13, and I have three graphics which show the connections and potential picks for elimination and targets in episode 13.

Before we start, I have one speculation about last week’s daily. Once Bananas realized that he was not going to win the daily, should he have waited just before the finish line? Last week, he was in fifth place and Tori won the daily. He should have waited instead to make a strategic decision. Once Bananas sees Theo running up and realizes Nehemiah is purged out and he’s going in for sure, he should have let Theo finish before him and gone directly into elimination, ensuring a Jordan vs. Bananas elimination instead of a Theo vs. Bananas elimination. Granted last week’s elimination favored the smaller player, but in most eliminations Bananas had a much better chance against Jordan than Theo. Bananas could’ve given a big ‘F you’ to his rival of the season Tori, by taking out her #1 and his biggest competitor for the final.

Onto this week’s graphics. First, I have the guy-girl social connections chart for week 11. The most connected women are Rachel, Tori and Michele. The most connected men are Derek and Josh.

Since 3 people were eliminated last week, nobody gained connections. The strongest holds from last week were Cory, Rachel and Derek. Cory lost his #1 male ally, but all of his women connections still held true or got stronger because of their other connections leaving. Rachel only lost a weakly connected Nehemiah and Derek only lost his weak connection with Laurel.

The least connected women are Cara Maria and Jenny. The least connected men are Cory and Jordan.

The biggest losses from last week were for Cara Maria, Michele, Olivia and Josh. Cara Maria lost her allies, Theo and Nehemiah. Michele and Olivia both lost Theo and seem to have weakened their ties with Josh. Josh lost Laurel and his connections with Michele and Olivia are fraying.

Second, I have a graphic of the men’s rankings of the targets (Cara Maria, Olivia, and Michele), to guess which target each guy would choose if he was the daily winner. The person on the top ranking is safe, unless they were the only target available. The person on the bottom ranking will go into elimination, if they are available. The person in the middle will go into elimination, if the person on the bottom ranking is not available (because they won the daily or came last.)

For example, if Kyland wins, he would save Olivia unless she’s the only target left to choose. Kyland would throw in Cara Maria in most cases. If Cara Maria isn’t available as a target, he would throw in Michele.

Looking through all the cases, Cara Maria is in the most danger of getting thrown into elimination, with Michele close behind. Olivia is the safest from being thrown into elimination.

Third, I have potential target picks for each woman, if they win the elimination. I also have a fourth potential pick, in case one of the first three is the daily winner and is not available to pick (like Tori was last week).

For example, if Cara Maria wins, she would pick Bananas, Josh, and Jordan as targets. If one of them are daily winners, she chooses Kyland.

Last week I was spot on. I expected Tori to save Jordan and throw in Bananas if she won the daily. I predicted Bananas will target Tori, Michele, and Olivia, and have Cara Maria as the backup target if one of them was not available, all of which came true.

All of this is pure speculation and I’m unspoiled and basing it all on the episodes that have already aired. What do you think? Which parts do you agree or disagree with?