The Argument Against Trading Down

Let’s start with a Browns history of trading down at the top of the draft…

2011: Six overall becomes Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, Brandon Weeden.

2014: Four overall becomes Justin Gilbert, Cameron Erving, Ibraheim Campbell.

2016: Two overall becomes Corey Coleman, Shon Coleman, Cody Kessler, Ricardo Louis, Derrick Kindred, Jordan Payton, Spencer Drango, Deshone Kizer, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward

The only time we ever came remotely close to coming out on top after trading down was when we got lucky Deshaun Watson was injured 6 games into his rookie year and the Texans finished 1-9 to gift us a top 5 pick. Because top 5 picks are where you find elite talents. In 2011 we could’ve had Julio Jones. In 2014 we could’ve had Khalil Mack. In 2016 we could’ve had Joey Bosa. Those three players alone are worth more than the 17 players we netted in return.

One reason frequently given for trading down is team needs, and that the talent at the top doesn’t match up with the holes on the roster. Picking in the top 5 is an opportunity to add a franchise cornerstone for the next decade, that pick transcends needs. Players come and go, we’ve turned over 80% of the roster since 2022. There’s too many holes on the roster and we need more picks? We already have 9 picks in this draft excluding comp picks, how many more do we need?

There’s been an argument that we should trade down to get extra picks in 2026 so we can trade up for a quarterback next year. This assumes that there’s a team this year willing to give up a future first and more for a QB we deem not good enough, that the teams at the top of the draft next year won’t want to take QBs themselves, and ignores the 2026 QB class isn’t looking much better than 2025. But setting that aside, it sends a terrible message to the players currently on the team. Picking a player at two, whether it’s a QB or not, says that we’re here to build a great football team that can compete and win games. Trading back to prioritize 2026 picks says we’d rather focus on the future than the present.

Finally, the coach and GM are potentially on the hot seat, screwing this draft up probably costs them their jobs. If they take a QB at 2 he has to be a franchise guy that you can build a functional offense around long term. If they go through a comprehensive evaluation process and decide none of the QBs available at 2 are worth the pick, their jobs will be directly tied to the success of the team in 2025. Finding the most impactful player with the second pick is the best way to make this team competitive in the short term while providing a foundation to build on in the future. Trading down and taking a lesser player increases the risk of getting fired while the team is left with future draft picks they won’t be around to use.

To summarize: The very top of the draft is where elite football players that change the trajectory of teams are found, this opportunity transcends immediate roster needs, we’re unlikely to get the proverbial haul for this pick if we do trade down, prioritizing future picks sends a terrible message to the current roster, trading down maximizes the chance of Berry/Stefanski losing their jobs, and every time we’ve tried this before it’s been a disaster. Stay at 2 and pick a football player that helps this team win football games for the next decade.