Does anyone think Deepseek is going to damage AI stocks like AMD?
I'm still dubious of any claims that come out of China - I'll admit I haven't explored how it's been bench marked and by who - but if true it makes me worried about some of my stocks like AMD.
Think about it, it's opened source by the MIT license and I'm a HUGE believer in opensource... to a point. While there is a lot of mention about hardware innovations being part of the success. At the beginning of any opensource project advanced and efficient features and functionality come out fast, but in time that slows down out of human nature. It's cool to work on something new, but tweaking something that is now mainstream and you are one out of many instead of one out of few and lose interest. My point is look for some serious innovation coming out with Deepseek. Then again, they could have gone down a dead end path and that's as good as it gets. A lot of things are created with the intent to show they can match an achievement with far less cost, but in doing so they fine tuned their design to the point that that is all it can do.
Then we hit that pesky Moore's Law issue and is scaling really going to make that big of a difference? The magnificent 7 have each ordered 400k - 500k chips (mostly NVDA, sorry folks) GPU's. Is Deepseek going to make investors think, 'Whoa, you guys bought much more house than you need' and start backing out. The flip of that is if scaling isn't impacted by AI's version of Moores Law, then it was a good call and shit's about to get real.
So, if 55 million (or whatever the exact cost was) can get you to OpenAI ChatGPT 4o performance, you don't have to be crowned one of the Magnificent 7 to push out AI breakthroughs. Although I doubt the 55 million cost because I don't believe they are calculating the costs of the significant hardware innovations required.
The last thing I can come up with that worries me is energy consumption (are energy costs even factored into the costs of training a model). That worry is obvious.
So, again I ask, does anyone think the Deepseek is going to hurt AMD and other things all about building data centers